Decision Making = Prediction Making

Submitted by Jeff Galas on Tue, 05/09/2017 - 11:51
Decision Making

Are you good at making decisions? Is your decision making improving? How do you know?



All people think they make great decisions. Few people examine if they are good decision makers.



Those best at making decisions view it as a prediction and focus on the outcome they want.


They study when and how they made good decisions - when and how they made bad decisions. The outcome is only one part of this retrospective. The larger part is examining the process they used to make the decision.


You don't need a process when all the information is present and the outcomes are clear. However, when the data is unclear, the outcome uncertain and emotions are high you need a disciplined approach.



These are key questions I force myself to work through:


  • Is this decision time sensitive?

  • What is the information is needed to make the decision? *never accept substitute data. If you can't get the information - just know you have increased uncertainty.

  • What is the risk/reward?

  • What are all the choices - not just the obvious ones? What are the potential outcomes of each?



Going through this is a discipline. A discipline that pays for itself every time.



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